The Bidens’ Last Act: Six Scenarios

Joe Biden will leave the 2024 race on his own, no matter what he’s saying now.

Joe Biden knows he will give up the 2024 race, and his most important advisors and confidants in his immediate family–his wife Jill and son Hunter–understand that he must, too—regardless of what they’re saying in public or how much Joe insists he’s sticking around.

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This isn’t a clickbait prognostication; the following is a fleshing-out of arguments I’ve made on social media for the last several weeks, if not months. I don’t consider this a prediction as much as the result of an assessment of likely outcomes, from the way the decision makers–that is, the Biden family themselves–would understand their options, and the cost-benefit analysis they’re making (or, more likely, already have made) in their situation. 

One of the reasons why this process is so interesting to me is that it’s completely opaque: I have absolutely no inside information on this very public drama from the White House, the power centers of the Democrat Party, or the elite Washington press corps (the relationships I’ve built over the decades in the media notwithstanding). Despite the temptation to be curious about gossip, there’s a certain purity of analysis that’s possible when you’re not inside the storm, being spun. The worst place to be, if you’re looking for a clear picture, is deep within the spin-zone of one faction or another. 

So, all that said, the only things I’m basing my analysis on are: (1) a reading of the media’s reporting that takes into account what I know about how that world works, how stories are generated, and the likely motivations behind how such narratives are created; and (2) what I believe to be a rational analysis of the Biden family’s options. 

I realize I’m taking a chance here, as not only does my analysis fly in the face of much conventional wisdom, but it appears to contradict what the president and his White House have repeatedly declared: his undiminished fitness for office and his determined intention to face Donald Trump in November.

But I think he’s lying. 

That’s because the Bidens know that, even if the president suffers no dramatic physical or mental collapse on the campaign trail, any option outside of abandoning the 2024 presidential race would diminish or even potentially destroy their fortunes.

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Defiance as a Negotiation Tactic

Even prior to his disastrous showing in the curiously-early CNN debate on June 28th, the last several months had seen Biden’s poll numbers creak and falter, coming as a shock to Democrats who’d bet that the legal issues they’d contrived against Trump had not, as they’d expected, taken their toll on the former president’s popularity. But Biden’s croaking, confused, hoarse, and visibly enfeebled debate performance sent the elites of the Democratic Party into an open panic. 

Unlike cable news executives–who have quietly admitted they benefit financially from a Trump victory, despite the contents of their programing–many of the real power centers in the Democrat Party, from congressmen in swing states and appointees in his administration, to campaign consultants and other barnacles on electoral politics, would suffer by putting their careers on hold through another Trump presidency. The voice and interests of this cohort—with the notable inclusion of the still-powerful Obamaworld, its fixers, hangers-on and simps–has been expressed in the Left’s elite corporate media, which has sought to have him replaced with a less vulnerable Kamala Harris. The first significant shot in that campaign was fired, significantly, by an unprecedented number of columnists at the New York Times. 

Despite her intellectual shortcomings and severe charm deficit, they know that the first Female African-American President would, no doubt, benefit from a media hype campaign the intensity of which Americans have likely never experienced unless they’d grown up in Soviet or other totalitarian societies. It might even goose now-lacking enthusiasm in black voters enough to drag her over the finish line.

Biden’s insistence on staying in the race has done nothing to temper this gentle-but-firm information campaign designed to force him to withdraw. In fact, it has fed into it. Republicans have long known about the Bidens’ avarice, stubbornness, and love of power. Now, finally, as the media builds momentum to dispatch Biden from the race, the corporate press has let their readers and viewers know about it, too. No doubt, these characteristics have played into media reporting about Joe’s obstinate refusal to acknowledge his weakness going into an election with Donald Trump, and have given this reporting more credence. 

Even more, we’ve seen a number of media stories and leaks about Jill Biden’s personal ambitions, her extensive role in White House business, and love for the trappings of power. Her defiant, post-debate appearance on the cover of Vogue and her commissioning of a musical theme for the First Lady comparable to “Hail to the Chief” reinforce the idea that the Bidens will not leave unless they’re forced. The strategic deployment of this narrative works in the Bidens’ favor, allowing the situation to play out more dramatically–and create more favorable conditions for negotiation for the First Family.

The Bidens have made a living from their proximity to political power, and it’s important to realize that they will never be more powerful than they are right now: with every public misstep, their apparent stubbornness to cling to the presidency intensifies Democrats’ panic. This anxiety places Biden and his family in a strategically advantageous position, allowing him to win concessions from donors and politicians alike. Importantly, however, that position has a sell-by date; if Biden sticks around too long, he stands to lose everything, not least of which is the current leverage over the Party he now holds. 

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The Six Scenarios

Here I’ll break down the possible scenarios for the Bidens, and try to show that, regardless of the drama we see playing out in the news, I believe it’s very likely that the First Family has already decided that Joe will depart the race on his own. Teasing out their possible best-case predictable scenarios—meaning, we won’t consider if the president dies suddenly in office or has a disastrous, debilitating breakdown in a very public way—this is likely how the Bidens are looking at their options:

SCENARIO 1: Biden stays in, makes it to November, and wins

After a grueling, close and stressful campaign–and a lack of enthusiasm from Democrat voters–Biden manages to win the election and defeat Donald Trump. His ego is gratified and, having put the “bed wetters” in his party in their place, he basks in his come-from-behind victory. Not too long thereafter, however, he will acknowledge the reality of his deteriorated condition and honorably hand the White House to Vice President Kamala Harris. Everyone knew this was coming; from election night until his inevitable resignation, the status and power of the Biden family will diminish relative to that of the incoming president and her retinue. As the lamest of lame ducks, neither the elites and donors of the Democratic Party and foreign companies and nations will have reason to continue to shower the Bidens with the financial advantages proximity to power can convey. This will be particularly painful, as that is what they have spent the last five decades expertly mining. They will leave office with very little influence, and they’d have to get jobs for the first time in their lives. 

SCENARIO 2: Biden stays in, makes it to November, and he loses

This is the worst scenario for the Biden family; by next January, they’ll be out of power, will need to get jobs, and the media and the rest of the Left will blame them for stubbornly climbing to the ticket merely to get beaten by the despised Donald Trump. His hubris will have led to the death of Our Democracy^TM and will cause a cataclysm in the Democrat Party. He’d be a villain in US history–not only on the Right but on the Left, too. 

SCENARIO 3: Biden stays in, loses a convention fight, and Harris wins

While the brutality of the Democrats’ summertime convention fight generates press and controversy, the drama ultimately works to Harris’ advantage, as the media commits to bringing her across the finish line by any means necessary. It will be a moral panic dwarfing the scale of Covid and BLM. For the Biden family, however, the result is far less triumphant and positive. This scenario is similar to (2), in that the Bidens’ future prestige and financial prospects dry up, as they are humiliated by their own party and unmasked as having very little influence. 

SCENARIO 4: Biden stays in, loses a convention fight, and Harris loses

The brutality of the Democrats’ summertime convention fight works to Trump’s advantage, as the drama overshadows the controversies the media attempts to swirl around Trump. The narrative will forgo blaming Harris, and settle on Biden’s refusal to go quietly, and the resultant death of Our Democracy^TM.  Again, the same scenario as (2) and (3) as far as the Bidens’ future viability is concerned. An embittered Harris and Obamaworld will make sure to blame them for the loss, and the fury of the press will hound Biden and his family well beyond the grave.

SCENARIO 5: Biden leaves the race on his own, is replaced by Harris, and she wins

This is the best scenario for Biden’s legacy, for his family’s fortunes—and for the Democrat Party. The Bidens’ will be paid off to depart quietly and to maintain party unity. Their influence will be over, but they’ll have left the stage with whatever goodies they can get for at their highest possible price and strongest negotiating position. Joe Biden will be known as a selfless statesman, having served his country for decades with honor and distinction. Like Lyndon Johnson, his legacy will not be tarnished by declining a second term; that detail will be trivia.

SCENARIO 6: Biden leaves the race on his own, is replaced by Harris, and she loses

This might be the worst situation for the Democrats, but it’s not the worst for the Bidens. Just like in (5), they get to walk away with no influence but with whatever they can get for agreeing to play ball.  

If the Bidens are cunning, concerned about their prestige and future financial viability—and they are—and they’re about to roll the dice, those are the possible outcomes and their costs and benefits. To me, it’s pretty clear that (5) is, not only the smartest option, but really their only option. If they haven’t taken the time to game out these scenarios, certainly someone from Obamaworld has put the stakes to them quite vividly.

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Of course, anything can happen; Jill, Hunter, Joe and the other key members of their family could all, in theory, be delusional about their situation and miscalculate their options and chase the car off the cliff.

On the other hand, I believe that wishful thinking and longstanding contempt for Bidens is causing conservatives to place more credence in the First Family’s stubbornness and (admittedly) prodigious appetite for power than is warranted.

Despite everything, there is the reality of Joe Biden’s deteriorating condition. Even the most committed member of the Biden inner circle cannot honestly imagine Joe’s presence at the Capitol in 2029, handing over the presidency to his successor. Biden is clearly not capable of serving out the next four year term—even if there was no election and he didn’t have to campaign this year. Even in 2020, it was obvious that, considering Biden’s age and condition, there was very little chance he’d serve two full terms. 

More than any of us on the outside looking in, the Biden family and its tightly controlled inner circle of staffers, doctors, and loyalists are painfully aware of what it takes to keep Joe appearing even as half-plausible as a president and candidate as he’s been so far. It looks like a heavy lift, and it’s certainly far tougher than it looks. It’s a daily tightrope walk–at least between his waking hours–and it’s a roll of the dice every day he’s in the White House, much less on the campaign trail. In addition to the stress of controlling his public appearances, there’s the less obvious stuff: managing the working of the most complex and powerful government in the world, essentially on autopilot. The deception required to accomplish this, all while maintaining the appearance of order and normalcy, is not something that can likely be sustained for another term–even by a team more capable than the Bidens. And they know it could all collapse at any moment. 

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