One more thought… perhaps the DNC picks S1, decides to take the (presumed) losses and keep the powder dry for another round of the Resistance. If there is an upside surprise, so much the better.
I think it leaves Scenario 5 & 6 as the only mutually beneficial options for the Biden’s and the DNC. For Harris, or any other D candidate, not so much. (In my half-dozen re-readings of your piece, I’ve considered Harris as proxy for any alternative candidate). With four months and change to Nov 5 anything can happen, including S5, which could be a case of be careful what you wish for.
Well written. On The Common Bridge, I wrote a piece that reached similar conclusions, i.e., the no-lose course for the DNC is to replace Biden with Harris at the top of the ticket. Will try to link to it here if Substack allows.
I am flabbergasted that this is the first comment on this excellent piece. I just sent it to Nate Silver in hopes he would come out to play.
I am curious to know your thoughts in light of yesterday’s event. It seems to me that Scenario 6 now makes the most sense.
Most importantly, thank you for sharing your insights. I enjoyed going through the thought exercise with you!
Thank you very much. I wonder what Silver would say. I'm thinking through how the recent assassination attempt changes anything, if it does at all.
You called it! 👍
One more thought… perhaps the DNC picks S1, decides to take the (presumed) losses and keep the powder dry for another round of the Resistance. If there is an upside surprise, so much the better.
I think it leaves Scenario 5 & 6 as the only mutually beneficial options for the Biden’s and the DNC. For Harris, or any other D candidate, not so much. (In my half-dozen re-readings of your piece, I’ve considered Harris as proxy for any alternative candidate). With four months and change to Nov 5 anything can happen, including S5, which could be a case of be careful what you wish for.
Well written. On The Common Bridge, I wrote a piece that reached similar conclusions, i.e., the no-lose course for the DNC is to replace Biden with Harris at the top of the ticket. Will try to link to it here if Substack allows.
https://thecommonbridge.substack.com/p/kamala-harris-for-president